Real-World Project Cost Range (and what drives it)
Most complete furnace-to-heat-pump conversions land between $8,000–$25,000. Basic replacements with minimal extras cluster around $8,000–$12,000; moderate retrofits run $12,000–$18,000; complex, multi-trade conversions hit $18,000–$25,000. Variation comes from (1) duct static pressure and sizing, (2) electrical service amperage, (3) refrigerant line routing, and (4) climate/defrost strategy.
Typical inclusions: outdoor unit, air handler, refrigerant line set, thermostat, basic electrical, commissioning. Typical exclusions: major duct redesign, panel upgrades, long line-set runs, structural penetrations, and specialized condensate handling.
Budget duct changes before panel work; airflow shortfalls can undermine performance even on a perfect electrical upgrade.
Quick reference:
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Basic: 8–12k
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Moderate: 12–18k
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Complex: 18–25k+
Browse efficient options in our R-32 heat pump systems.
Equipment & Base Install: Standard vs. Cold-Climate
Installed pricing for a standard air-source heat pump typically runs $4,500–$12,000. Cold-climate models (enhanced vapor injection, better low-ambient capacity, crankcase heat management) usually price $8,500–$15,000 installed. That delta buys higher HSPF2/SEER2 performance and usable heat at lower outdoor temperatures—critical above the frost line.
What’s in the “base install”: pad or brackets, outdoor unit, matching indoor air handler/coil, new line set where required, control wiring, condensate handling, commissioning with superheat/subcool targets, and thermostat setup.
Tech note: Cold-climate units carry richer defrost logic and often larger vapor injection compressors. Expect higher MCA/MOP—verify panel space early.
Compare packaged options for space-constrained sites: residential packaged heat pumps.
Ductwork: Why Heat Pumps Want ~3× the Airflow
Heat pumps move more air at lower supply temperatures than furnaces. Plan for roughly 3× the airflow of a typical gas furnace stage to deliver equivalent room BTUs. That pushes static pressure up if returns/supplies are undersized, and it exposes leakage you could previously “power through” with furnace blower torque.
Typical scope:
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Return drop replacement ($300–$400) to open up the bottleneck
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Minor repairs & sealing ($500–$1,200)
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Individual run corrections ($300–$1,200/run)
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Full replacements ($5,000–$15,000) for older, undersized trunks
[Return grille]====(Drop)====[Filter]====[Air Handler]====(Supply trunk)===> [Branches]
↑ Common choke point ↑ Verify coil PD ↑ Resize high-loss runs
Commissioning target: Keep total external static ≤ manufacturer spec (often ~0.5 in.w.g.). Measure, don’t guess.
If you’re evaluating sizes, start with our Sizing Guide.
Electrical: Service, Panel, and Dedicated Circuits
Modern heat pumps typically need a dedicated 240V, 30–60A branch. Many homes with 100A service require a panel upgrade to 200A to accommodate compressor LRA, crankcase heat, backup heat strips, EV chargers, and ranges.
Budgetary ranges:
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Basic panel upgrade: $1,500–$5,000
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Full service upgrade: $1,500–$5,000
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Complex/utility-coordinated work: up to $5,000+
Spec check: Confirm MCA/MOP from the nameplate and include heat strip breakers in the load calc. A split-bus or crowded panel often kills the “no-upgrade” hope.
Need a fast scoping? Use Quote by Photo to triage space and breaker availability: Upload photos ».
Line-Set Routing, Materials, and Cost Control
Line-set cost is driven by length, obstacles, and finish. Expect $370–$800 for standard installs; extended runs price $15–$40/ft, with total refrigerant piping sometimes hitting $1,000–$5,000 when routing around finished spaces.
Good practice:
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Keep total equivalent length inside OEM limits to protect capacity.
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Use proper wall sleeves, UV-rated insulation, and sealant at penetrations.
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Pressure test with nitrogen and hold; evacuate to ≤500 microns with decay test.
Plan for a line-hide on exterior facades it protects insulation and improves curb appeal at minimal cost.
Shop pre-insulated sets and accessories: Line Sets.
The “Small” Items That Add Up (Permits to Thermostats)
Budget the rest of the stack: permits/inspections ($50–$500), condensate solutions ($50–$450), pad or wall bracket ($100–$600), old system removal ($400–$2,000; oil is higher), and smart thermostat ($200–$850).
Controls: Heat pumps shine with smart staging and outdoor temperature lockouts. Choose a thermostat that understands compressor staging, auxiliary heat lockouts, and defrost demand.
Condensate: Gravity is cheapest; when using pumps, isolate vibration and add an overflow safety.
Add supply and return temperature probes for post-install performance checks; it pays back in fewer callbacks.
Browse compatible thermostats and install hardware in Accessories.
Case Studies: What Actual Projects Totaled
Mid-South Ranch (TN, 1,800 sq ft): 3-ton heat pump, minor duct sealing, no electrical upgrade. Total: $9,800; rebates lowered net to $6,600. Smoothest path: returns were already generous.
Cold-Climate 1980s Home (IA, 2,000 sq ft): Cold-climate heat pump with backup strips; panel upgrade and added insulation. Total: $13,200; after credits, $11,200. Key driver: electrical service and envelope work.
Full Retrofit (Toronto, multi-system): Central + ductless, HP water heater, custom ductwork, ERV. Total project: $52,667. This is the “everything at once” scenario—highest comfort, highest scope.
Duct and electrical realities determine which budget band you’ll live in. Get both checked before you pick equipment.
Incentives (2025): How to Stack Them Correctly
Federal tax credit: 30% up to $2,000 for qualifying ENERGY STAR heat pumps—applies to equipment + installation, not to panel upgrades or major ductwork. Claim via IRS Form 5695 with your return.
Rebates: The High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Program can cover up to $8,000 (income-qualified) or up to $4,000 (moderate income). Rollout is state-by-state through mid-to-late 2025 with utility add-ons in many areas.
Stacking example: Federal credit + state program + utility rebate commonly yields $5,000–$11,000 in total relief.
Treat incentives as post-pricing cash flow. Don’t downsize equipment or skip duct fixes to “hit a number.” Performance first.
See financing options to bridge timing: HVAC Financing ».
Planning & Timeline: From Load Calc to Commissioning
Start with data:
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Manual J load to size capacity and back-check room cfm targets
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Electrical load analysis for breaker/service needs
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Duct assessment (static map, leakage, and key run sizes)
Base installs run 1–2 days; add 3–5 days with duct modifications; 1–2 weeks when electrical upgrades require permits and utility coordination.
Ask each contractor to list equipment model, airflow/static targets, line-set plan, and panel scope. Apples-to-apples bids prevent “mystery” cost creep.
Start the process with our Design Center.
Long-Term Value: Energy, Comfort, and Resale
Well-commissioned retrofits typically deliver 20–50% annual energy savings compared to older fossil systems, a 10–20-year equipment life with routine maintenance, and measurably better comfort (longer, quieter cycles; tighter humidity control). Cold-climate units paired with right-sized ducts provide steady supply temps without the furnace “blast-and-coast.”
Upgrades that compound value: smart lockouts for auxiliary heat, balanced returns to multi-story spaces, and envelope improvements (attic/attic hatch, top-plate sealing).
Dual-fuel option: In marginal electrical or extreme-cold markets, hybrid setups can cap peak demand while keeping most heating electric. See packaged dual-fuel.
