SEER2 vs. What’s Next: The Plain-English Refresher
SEER2 arrived in January 2023 with the “M1” test closer to real ductwork pressures, so ratings line up better with how equipment runs in the field. What’s coming next isn’t just a new label; it’s a shift in how we measure comfort and energy. The future points to SEER3 concepts and load-based tests that grade equipment under changing conditions: hot afternoons, humid evenings, and mild mornings at partial speed. For homeowners, that means you’ll see ratings that better predict your bills and your comfort especially in humid climates. While you’re researching, compare high-efficiency inverter mini-splits and heat pumps that excel at part-load operation. Browse options like ductless mini-splits.
SEER3: What the Industry Is Talking About
SEER3 hasn’t been officially adopted, but the discussion is loud and consistent: make ratings capture real-world operation of variable-speed systems. Instead of locking a compressor at fixed points, SEER3-style ideas evaluate how the unit naturally ramps up and down under its own controls. Expect more weight on part-load performance (where systems run most of the time) and humidity management (a major comfort and mold-prevention factor). Also watch for grid-friendly behavior units that can precool or trim load when power prices spike. Translation: when SEER3 lands, top performers will likely be inverter heat pumps and ductless systems that already shine at variable speeds. If you’re planning a replacement in the next 1–3 years, consider shortlisting inverter options now, like ceiling cassette systems.
DOE’s New Metrics: SCORE & SHORE (Cooling and Heating)
The Department of Energy is developing SCORE (cooling) and SHORE (heating). Think of these as the next-gen counterparts to SEER2 and HSPF2 designed to capture seasonal performance more completely. Where older tests leaned on steady lab points, the new approach leans on load-based and dynamic conditions. In plain terms, the score should better reflect the stop-and-go rhythm your system faces across a season. If you care about bills and comfort, that’s good news: you’ll have ratings that tell you not just “How efficient is this in a lab?” but “How will it likely behave in my climate with my ductwork?” Pair modern equipment with right-sized air handlers and quality line sets to protect real-world efficiency (air handlers).
Load-Based, Real-World Testing: Why It Matters at Home
A lot of systems run most hours at partial load not full blast. That’s where variable-speed gear earns its keep: quieter, drier air, smoother temperatures, and fewer amp spikes. Future tests will grade those everyday conditions, including static pressure from your actual ductwork and indoor humidity swings. Pro tip from the field: poor duct design can erase fancy ratings. Before you chase the highest number, verify duct static and room airflow. In retrofits, I’ll often correct return sizing and fix leaky plenums before swapping equipment. Use the Sizing Guide.
Real-Time Performance Monitoring: From Guesswork to Data
The next big leap is live system data. Smart sensors now track liquid/vapor line temps, pressures, superheat/subcooling, run time, amperage, and outdoor/indoor temps minute by minute. With that info, you can spot a refrigerant undercharge, a dirty coil, or a failing capacitor before it becomes a no-cool call. Many inverter systems pair well with smart thermostats and Wi-Fi modules that feed dashboards. A good installation includes: accurate charge (weigh in, then fine-tune by subcooling/superheat), matched indoor/outdoor components, and a clean power supply (surge protection).
Grid Interaction & Electrification: Will Your AC Talk to the Utility?
As utilities add more renewable power, they reward homes that can pre-cool, shift load, or trim peaks. Expect future ratings to acknowledge this behavior. Practically, that means your system may coordinate with time-of-use rates or utility signals to run when electricity is cleaner and cheaper. Variable-speed heat pumps are naturals here: they can sip power for hours instead of gulping it in bursts. If your area offers demand response programs, choose equipment that integrates cleanly with smart thermostats and home energy platforms. For packaged solutions especially rentals or small commercial see package units and PTACs; many are moving toward smarter controls, too.
Humidity, Climate & Comfort: Ratings Will Get Region-Savvy
In humid regions, comfort isn’t just about temperature it’s about latent load (moisture). Future tests will likely credit systems that wring out humidity without torpedoing efficiency. Inverter systems can slow the coil airflow or compressor speed to keep coils cold longer, improving moisture removal. Field tip: pair your system with a thermostat that supports dehumidification control (like dehumidify on demand or overcool by X°F). Also, keep supply registers from blowing straight at a thermostat it can fake out the sensor and shorten cycles. If you’re coastal or swamp-humid, explore multi-speed air handlers and ductless solutions with proven moisture performance (concealed-duct mini-splits).
Refrigerants & Environmental Impact: Beyond kWh (TEWI)
Efficiency is only part of the environmental story. TEWI (Total Equivalent Warming Impact) adds up the electricity your system uses plus the refrigerant impact if it leaks. That’s why the industry is moving toward lower-GWP refrigerants like R-32 and tightening leak prevention. From the install side, that means clean brazing, proper nitrogen purging, accurate evacuation (pull to ≤500 microns and prove it holds), and weigh-in charging. Homeowners can help by scheduling annual coil cleanings and keeping shrubs at least 18–24 inches from the outdoor unit for airflow. Curious about R-32 options? Compare R-32 condensers and R-32 packaged systems.
Codes, Automation & Where Homes Fit (ASHRAE, BACS)
Commercial rules (like ASHRAE 90.1 and BACS requirements in bigger buildings) are pushing smarter controls, better envelopes, and continuous commissioning. While houses aren’t under the same rules, technology trickles down fast. Expect more fault detection & diagnostics (FDD) in residential: sensors that flag low airflow, coil fouling, or refrigerant deviations before comfort slips. For help navigating specs and controls, check the Help Center or our HVAC Tips.
What to Buy Now: A Technician’s Checklist
If you’re replacing soon, here’s how I future-proof installs today:
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Inverter/variable-speed equipment with solid humidity control.
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Compatible thermostat with dehumidifier mode and Wi-Fi.
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Proper sizing (don’t guess—use a load calc). Start with our Sizing Guide.
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Duct checkup: verify static pressure and returns; seal leaks.
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R-32-ready or R-32 equipment, where available.
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Clean power: surge protector and dedicated circuit where required.
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Documented commissioning: superheat/subcooling, airflow, and a photo log.
Real-World Examples: Fixes That Pay Off
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High bills, clammy home: We swapped a single-stage 3-ton for a 2-ton inverter after a load calc, added a bigger return, and set dehumidifier to 50%. Result: tighter temps, drier air, and a ~25% drop in kWh during peak months.
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Frequent breaker trips: Found dirty outdoor coil and failing capacitor from voltage spikes. Cleaned coil, added surge protection, and stabilized operation.
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Cold rooms over garage: Short duct runs with low CFM. We installed a concealed-duct mini-split for the bonus room quiet and zoned.
Need parts for a clean install? See accessories and line sets.
Replacement Timing & Budget: Don’t Chase Labels Blindly
Should you wait for SEER3/SCORE/SHORE? Not if your current system is failing, out of warranty, or racking up repair bills. A well-installed inverter today will still look great under future ratings because it already excels at part-load efficiency and humidity control. If your system is healthy and under 10 years old, you have time to watch the standards mature. Either way, focus on right-sizing, ductwork, and commissioning; that's where homeowners win most. Want a sanity check on scope and cost? Use Quote by Photo and review our Satisfaction Guarantee.
The Roadmap: 2025–2032 (What to Expect)
Based on industry patterns, expect heavy research and stakeholder work through the mid-to-late 2020s, formal proposals before 2030, and broader adoption around 2030–2032. During that time, manufacturers will keep improving controls, quiet operation, humidity management, and grid-ready features. For homeowners, that means ratings will better match how you live, and equipment will get smarter at preventing issues before they hit. Planning a remodel or rental upgrade? Compare R-32 packaged choices (residential packaged AC) and room AC solutions (through-the-wall heat pumps).
FAQ: Future AC Ratings, SEER3 & Smart Monitoring
Is SEER3 official yet?
No. It’s being discussed. In the meantime, focus on inverter equipment with strong humidity control those benefits translate under any modern test.
Should I wait to replace my AC until SEER3/SCORE/SHORE are live?
If your system is unreliable or costly to run, no you’re likely losing money and comfort. A quality inverter installed today will age well.
What’s the difference between SEER2 and SCORE/SHORE?
SEER2 improved realism; SCORE/SHORE aim to go further with load-based, season-long performance snapshots that mirror real homes.
Will new ratings make my current AC obsolete?
No. Standards change how we measure. If your system is efficient, tight, and well-maintained, it stays valuable.
How can I track performance in real time?
Choose equipment and thermostats that support live data. Ask your installer about sensors for superheat/subcooling and run time trends.
Do I need a smart thermostat?
Strictly, no—but it helps with dehumidifying on demand, scheduling, alerts, and possible utility bill savings.
What about refrigerants—do I need R-32 now?
You don’t have to, but R-32 is a solid, lower-GWP direction.
Need a hand matching gear to your home and climate? Our techs love tricky layouts. Check the Design Center or reach out via Contact Us.
